Define preliminary safe versions of riskier missions - e.g.Progress to riskier missions only if prior missions successful and performance well understood.Set out mission by mission objectives starting with low risk missions before attempting those with higer risk.Seek to refresh knowledge of best practices through open and frank discussion among subject matter experts including those with practical experience of AUV operations in polar environments. ![]() (2020) show that a risk-averse approach to mission planning is feasible. Conditional Probability Tables are presented for the operating environments and, importantly, also for prediction uncertainty, resulting in an example time history of the risk of damage.Ī risk-averse approach to polar AUV mission planningĭespite AUV operations in Polar Regions being acknowledged as high risk King et al. The authors showed how their method could be used in practice through using the open water, sea ice and ice shelf environments and risks encountered by the Autosub3 AUV on its Pine Island campaign in 2009. Furthermore, if there is a communications link between operators and the vehicle the mission path can be altered to reduce risk by avoiding those paths that would encounter hazards, for instance ice keels. The dynamic Bayesian network incorporates information on the AUV's location, from which estimates of the environmental factors can be determined, and incorporated in the risk analysis. (2020) have developed a new Bayesian approach that enables dynamic changes in the operating environment to affect the risk assessment. ![]() ![]() (2010) or provided a more detailed initial menu covering environment and capabilities, such as the Bayesian Belief Network approach in Griffiths and Brito (2008). Recent concepts, developments and practical experienceĭynamic risk analysis with an Antarctic under ice case studyĮarly risk analyses of AUV deployments under ice considered a fixed environment description, either as broad headings such as 'sea ice' or 'shelf ice', e.g.
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